# 研究基础设施信号排查：解决查询数据不一致及2026年9月全球地缘与经贸供应链重构动向

> 在新冷战与地缘经济博弈下，多边贸易秩序加速瓦解，全球经贸正向排他性安全合作与区域阵营化演变。

Published: 2026-09-19T14:49:40.624Z
Updated: 2026-09-19T14:49:40.624Z
URL: /zh/article/won-dollar-1381-2026

# 新冷战与经贸集团化加速：从格陵兰安全协定到大西洋经贸裂痕

支撑战后世界经济的多边贸易秩序与传统同盟体系正迎来结构性转折点。随着安全与经济界限日益模糊的“地缘经济学（Geoeconomics）时代”全面到来，各国开始放弃多边规则，转而将排他性安全协定、双边交易以及保护本土供应链置于最优先地位。截至2026年9月，国际局势的一系列最新发展清晰地折射出这种碎片化与集团化趋势。从围绕北极圈领土主权与安全争端的闪电和解，到横跨大西洋的新兴经济集团成型，再到围绕关键原材料的连环贸易限制，国际经贸与安全环境正在跨越前所未有的转折点。

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## 背景

随着多边自由贸易与集体安全同盟的削弱，昔日的地缘政治缓冲地带正在演变为大国战略竞争的前沿阵地。特别是北极圈和北大西洋地区，随着气候变暖拓展了航道开拓与资源开发的可能性，已迅速上升为关键的安全与经济战略要地。在此过程中，美国与北欧盟友之间的矛盾浮出水面，传统安全同盟内部围绕防务费用分摊与战略控制权的裂痕也日益频繁。

与此同时，全球供应链正面临因地缘政治分裂带来的剧烈冲击。中美战略竞争具体体现为尖端技术管制与自主化攻势，而中东等主要海上物流咽喉要道的动荡也直接转化为运价的暴涨。此外，主要经济体相继将碳边境调节机制（CBAM）和供应链尽职调查规范等新环境标准制度化，实际上筑起了更高的非关税壁垒；在钢铁等基础原材料产业中，反倾销税与进口限制措施更是密集出台。国际格局已进入一个彻底以国家利益为核心、深度重塑安全与经贸政策的巨大结构性转型期。

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## 核心焦点

近期全球经贸与地缘政治格局的核心议题可归纳为以下四个维度：

### 1. 北极圈安全协议与美国控制权的确立
美国、丹麦与格陵兰就此前因美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁强行兼并等诱发的极端矛盾达成妥协，闪电签署了关于格陵兰安全问题的协定。根据特朗普总统发表的声明，该协议赋予了美国对格陵兰境内安全及战略需求的永久控制权。尤为引人瞩目的是，协议明确包含了全面禁止美国敌对国在格陵兰建立军事基地、或在未经美国书面批准的情况下开展敏感投资的条款。尽管丹麦首相梅特·弗雷泽里克森对即将在联合国大会上签署的本协议表示正式欢迎，但以安全为名侵犯主权的争议依然暗流涌动。

### 2. 加拿大-欧盟联手与跨大西洋经贸摩擦
在欧洲与北美之间，出现了一种突破现有跨大西洋多边合作框架的新型经济集团化尝试。继欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩提出正式提议后，马克·卡尼在欧洲议会发表讲话，正式宣布加拿大接受史上首个欧盟“准成员国”地位。针对这一作为北美核心支柱的加拿大与欧洲经济集团寻求正式联合的罕见举动，特朗普总统发出警告称，一旦“加拿大-欧盟联盟”成型，将对欧洲产品征收高额关税。大西洋同盟内部围绕经贸主导权的正面冲突风险已然成为现实。

### 3. 中美技术管制冲突与海运物流冲击
中美关系呈现出表面对话尝试与深层结构性对抗并存的复杂态势。中国国务院副总理何立峰为协调元首会晤展开访美磋商，力图管控贸易与技术管制风险，但双方分歧依然深重。特别是在中国拟通过2026年3月启动的“十五五”规划全面推进“2030技术自立攻势”，而美国亦在持续强化网络安全与尖端技术出口管制的背景下，技术霸权竞争已呈常态化趋势。与此同时，霍尔木兹海峡危机导致远东至美国的海运运价暴涨324%，物流动脉的受阻对实体经贸指标造成了直接冲击。

### 4. 连锁贸易救济措施与环境规则壁垒化
在钢铁及基础原材料领域，区域内的贸易保护主义措施已演变为家常便饭。
- **日本：** 对韩国产镀锌钢板征收高达38%的临时反倾销税，并将调查范围进一步扩大至冷轧及热轧钢材。
- **韩国：** 正在评估对中国产特殊钢棒材征收25.08%至27.96%的临时关税，同时将第四季度中国产H型钢的最低出口价格（价格承诺）重新设定为每吨560美元。
- **环境规则：** 欧盟正在推动将碳边境调节机制（CBAM）的铝产品豁免门槛从原有的50吨大幅下调至5吨，并强化森林砍伐尽职调查法规，这给全球供应链施加了巨大的合规与认证成本。

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## 多维剖析

### 安全与经济边界的瓦解：“交易型安全”的固化
格陵兰安全协定标志着盟友间的协作已脱离传统的相互防卫体系，蜕变为从属于大国战略利益的“交易型安全”。未经美国书面批准便彻底阻断敌对国投资的条款，意味着安全协定已被用作对特定战略资源和地缘要地行使排他性经济与军事否决权的工具。在北极航道与稀土等战略资源价值飞涨的背景下，军事安全保障已与经贸、投资审批权直接挂钩，一种全新的地缘经济秩序业已成型。

### 大西洋集团化与关税施压的地缘经济学
加拿大寻求成为欧盟准成员国，实质上是一种通过拓展多边协作网络来应对美国单边主义贸易施压的迂回战略。然而，美国政府随即释放针对欧洲的高额关税报复信号，这反向证明了美国将排他性经贸集团的出现视作对以美为中心的贸易秩序的重大挑战。在传统盟友之间，经贸集团化尝试亦会迅速沦为贸易报复的目标，这种结构严重削弱了全球供应链的可预测性。

### 缓冲机制乐观论及其结构性局限（反方观点审视）
一部分观点乐观地认为，格陵兰安全协定的达成以及中美高层经贸磋商的推进，将作为缓冲机制（Buffer）有效阻止大西洋同盟破裂与中美彻底“脱钩（Decoupling）”所带来的灾难性后果。该逻辑认为，每当地缘政治风险逼近临界点时，双边磋商主导的战略妥协机制总能发挥兜底作用。

然而，这种乐观论忽视了此类协定本质上的脆弱性。格陵兰协定仅属于原则性共识，详细条款尚未完全公开，且美国政府仍在持续单方面索要安全成本补偿（如要求分摊霍尔木兹海峡通航保护成本）。此外，正如针对“加拿大-欧盟联合”的关税威胁所展现的那样，小多边或双边形式的暂时弥合无法填补多边主义规则缺位留下的真空。只要单边主义政策导向依然存在，阶段性的局势缓和不过是在推迟爆发更大不确定性的“脆弱平衡”。

### 多层次贸易壁垒：关税与环境规则的双重挤压
全球供应链正面临多重复合风险。东亚区域内上演的钢铁反倾销博弈，印证了制造业产能过剩与经济增长放缓向各自主保护主义蔓延的多米诺效应。在此基础上，欧盟缩减CBAM铝豁免限额（50吨→5吨）及强化供应链尽职调查规范，实质上起到了以环保为名的非关税壁垒作用。当霍尔木兹海峡危机引发的运费暴涨（324%）等物理冲击与制度性贸易壁垒相互叠加时，对外依存度极高的出口导向型制造业国家的边际成本正在急剧攀升。

---

## 展望

全球经贸与安全格局将彻底告别普遍多边规则主导的时代，滑向各势力范围排他性结盟与相互管制激烈碰撞的“碎片化（Fragmentation）”轨道。

首先，涵盖北极圈与北大西洋的安全治理架构，极大概率将重组为以强化美国控制权为主导、盟友从属协作的体系。即将在联合国大会上正式签署的格陵兰协定，将开创美国实质性控制盟国领土内战略要地的先例，这或将在其他地缘政治热点区域引发类似的“安全-经济置换交易”。

其次，全球经贸秩序预计不会走向多边主义的修复，而是加速滑向“集团间的正面抗衡”。美国针对“加拿大-欧盟联合”的关税报复很有可能演化为实质性的经贸摩擦。与此同时，随着中国在2026年3月通过“十五五”规划加速推进科技自立自强，美国在尖端技术出口管制和金融制裁领域的手段将更为精准。尽管存在战术性的对话阶段，围绕“2030技术主权”的中美霸权竞争已成为无法妥协的结构性常态。

第三，跨国企业在应对物理性物流瓶颈的同时，必须正面攻破日益复杂的制度性壁垒（包括反倾销税和更严苛的CBAM标准）。欧盟针对铝等基础金属的碳排放规制及森林尽职调查义务，已不再是遥远的未来议题，而是眼下直接关乎生死的财务风险。

归根结底，未来的全球经贸环境正在向“基于安全需求构建经济排他性”的轨道定型。在重构统一的多边贸易秩序已成奢望的当下，各国政府与企业必须具备前瞻视野，综合权衡交织叠加的贸易管制与地缘政治变量，先发制人地构建多元化供应链与风险管理体系。安全即经贸、规则即壁垒的残酷地缘经济现实，已全面拉开帷幕。

## Claims

- 미국과 덴마크는 트럼프 대통령의 병합 위협 이후 그린란드의 안보에 관한 협정에 도달했다고 발표했다. (Supported)
- 트럼프 대통령은 합의안이 미국의 서면 승인 없이 적대국이 그린란드에 군사 주둔을 하거나 민감한 투자를 하지 못하도록 하는 규정을 포함한다고 밝혔다. (Supported)
- 마크 카니는 캐나다가 EU의 사상 첫 준회원국이 되는 제안을 환영하는 연설을 유럽의회에서 진행했으나 트럼프 대통령은 고율 관세로 위협했다. (Supported)
- 호르무즈 위기 이후 극동발 미국행 운임(Far East-US Freight Rates)이 324% 급등했다. (Supported)
- 사우디 리야드 공항 인근에서 공습 경보 후 연기가 목격되는 등 예멘 후티 반군과의 갈등 심화 속에 항공편 차질이 빚어졌다. (Supported)
- 미국 트럼프 행정부로부터 적도기니 호텔로 추방된 이민자들이 구타당하고 구금되는 등 인권 침해가 발생했다는 보고가 제기되었다. (Supported)
- 2026년 9월 19일 아이치-나고야 아시안게임 경쟁 일정이 공식 개시되었다. (Supported)

## Forecasts

- 85% — 미국-덴마크 그린란드 안보 협정 최종 서명 및 광물 안보 조항 확정 (2026년 9월 말 (유엔 총회 회기 내)). Signal: 덴마크 총리의 차주 유엔 총회 서명 예고 및 핵심 광물·군사 거점 내 미 적대국 배제 조항 명문화
- 75% — 호르무즈 해협 해상 리스크 지속에 따른 아시아-미주 컨테이너 운임 고공행진 (2026년 4분기). Signal: 극동-미국 운임 324% 급등 지속 및 주요 해운사의 전쟁 위험 할증료 확대 적용

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- [地経学研究所（IOG） by 国際文化会館・アジア・パシフィック・イニシアティブ](https://instituteofgeoeconomics.org/) — instituteofgeoeconomics.org, 2026-09-19
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- [U.S. and Denmark reach deal to build U.S. military presence in Greenland](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/19/g-s1-144158/us-and-denmark-reach-deal) — npr.org, 2026-09-19
- [Discover this month's must-read trade stories - The World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/) — The World Economic Forum, 2026-09-19
- [Trade and Development Foresights 2026: Global economy faces a geopolitical challenge | - UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)](https://unctad.org/) — UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), 2026-09-19
- [Mexico Weighs Buying More From the US as USMCA Review Approaches - Mexico Business News](https://mexicobusiness.news/) — Mexico Business News, 2026-09-19
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- [The 2026 USMCA Review: A Turning Point in U.S.–Mexico Relations - americafirstpolicy.com](https://www.americafirstpolicy.com/) — americafirstpolicy.com, 2026-09-19
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- [Enterprise AI Claim Validation: Executive Perspectives on Governance, Automation, and Trust [In-Depth Analysis, 2026] - klover.ai](https://www.klover.ai/) — klover.ai, 2026-09-19
- [Geopolitical risk and supply chain diversification - CEPR](https://cepr.org/) — CEPR, 2026-09-19
- [Reglobalization drives the modern supply chain network - Supply Chain Management Review](https://www.scmr.com/) — Supply Chain Management Review, 2026-09-19
- [World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 - ReliefWeb](https://reliefweb.int/) — ReliefWeb, 2026-09-19
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- [Trump’s America: An Economic Challenge for the EU - Internationale Politik Quarterly](https://ip-quarterly.com/) — Internationale Politik Quarterly, 2026-09-19
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- [US and Denmark reach new agreement on defense and investment in Greenland - Politico](https://www.politico.com/) — Politico, 2026-09-19
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