# 委内瑞拉过渡局势：罗德里格斯签约道达尔能源与美国25年能源协议

> 后马杜罗时代的委内瑞拉积极吸引西方资本，不仅迎来法国道达尔的回归，还与美国达成了长达25年的能源合作协议。

Published: 2026-09-20T09:43:04.243Z
Updated: 2026-09-20T09:43:04.243Z
URL: /zh/article/venezuela-totalenergies-2026

## 背景：后马杜罗时代的过渡格局与能源市场的剧变

在尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）被捕后，委内瑞拉正经历着前所未有的权力重组与体制转型的过渡期。在长达数年的经济崩溃以及西方严厉制裁的孤立困境下，委内瑞拉的资源版图也迎来了急剧转变。在当前的过渡格局中，掌握实权并主导政局的核心人物是德尔西·罗德里格斯（Delcy Rodríguez）。罗德里格斯将修复瘫痪的国家能源基础设施、重建产能以及吸引外资列为首要任务，通过全面接触全球跨国能源企业，试图扭转当前局面。

委内瑞拉内部的这一权力重组，与全球能源市场的地缘政治危机形成了直接交汇。随着中东霍尔木兹海峡的军事紧张局势极度升级，加之沙特阿拉伯主要输油管道遭袭等一系列供应风险显现，国际油价已突破每桶100美元大关。在全球能源供应链陷入紊乱、通胀压力持续加剧的背景下，委内瑞拉庞大的石油储量再次成为国际社会瞩目的核心战略资产。在这一紧迫的国际局势下，委内瑞拉过渡政府正全力寻求维系生存的外交与经济出路，而西方阵营为了切实保障自身的能源安全，也已全面启动对委关系的重新调整。

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## 核心焦点：西方资本的回归与美国25年长期能源协定

在当前围绕委内瑞拉的全球能源博弈中，最值得关注的焦点莫过于法国能源巨头道达尔能源（TotalEnergies）的闪电回归，以及美国政府破天荒签署的长期协议。

首先，德尔西·罗德里格斯亲自促成了与法国跨国企业道达尔能源的正式协定。据全球金融市场及主要外媒报道，该协议被视为马杜罗下台后，西方主流石油巨头重返委内瑞拉上游（Upstream，原油勘探与开采）领域的关键风向标。过去因国有化举措及制裁风险而撤离或停产的跨国能源企业，如今通过与过渡政权直接签约重启生产，为委内瑞拉原油供应链的正常化奠定了重要转机。

其次，美国白宫采取了前所未有的长期介入战略。基于委内瑞拉境内估计超过650亿桶的探明储量，美国政府正式宣布了一项长达25年的长期能源协定。根据协议架构，美方将通过获取NABEP 35%的股权等紧密合作模式，旨在同时掌握主要油田区域的实际控制权与原油供应的稳定性。

为在制度层面上为该协定提供支撑，美国政府迅速颁布并生效了“第52C号通用许可证（General License 52C）”。“第52C号通用许可证”是一项关键法律机制，它在原有的对委全面制裁框架内，策略性地放宽了针对原油钻探、开采、炼化及相关金融交易的限制。这标志着美国正立足于长达25年的战略视野，启动果断的行政与财政手段，将高达650亿桶规模的战略资源纳入以自身为主导的供应链体系中。

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## 多维分析：地缘政治算计、司法风险与政治真空

委内瑞拉重返原油市场，是一个交织着复杂国际政治利益与内部司法及制度裂痕的多维方程式。我们需要从地缘政治、制度与司法、国内政治博弈三个维度进行深入剖析。

### 1. 地缘政治维度：中东供应冲击的战略替代品
美国政府决意签署25年长期协定并生效第52C号通用许可证，其根本动因在于对冲中东供应冲击的迫切能源安全战略。霍尔木兹海峡的封锁危机与沙特输油管遭袭引发油价飙升（突破每桶100美元），给全球经济带来了巨大的下行压力。委内瑞拉作为西半球储量最大的国家，其650亿桶原油是降低对中东产油国地缘政治依赖的最直接、最现实的替代选择。美国正通过NABEP合作伙伴关系抢占油田控制权，并引入道达尔能源等欧洲盟友资本，以此巩固构建稳定供应链的战略布局。

### 2. 制度与司法维度：交易总负责人的受查隐患与旧政权的司法风险
在光鲜的能源协定背后，潜藏着严重的司法风险。据国际调查记者同盟（ICIJ）等机构的深度报道披露，由白宫指定负责统筹委内瑞拉石油交易的核心人物，目前正面临两国的刑事调查。担负着保障能源供应链透明度与国际公信力重任的业务负责人沦为多国调查对象，这成为日后项目推进中可能引爆致命法律纠纷与腐败丑闻的导火索。

前马杜罗政权核心人物的司法风险同样是持续的不稳定因素。被称为旧政权“金库大管家”的亚历克斯·萨博（Alex Saab）在配合美国联邦检方过程中流出的证词与证据，以及围绕马杜罗之妻、前第一夫人西莉亚·弗洛雷斯（Cilia Flores）的司法程序，正在不断刺激过渡政府内部的权力矛盾。在资源控制权彻底实现制度化之前，针对高层人物的调查与司法攻防进一步加剧，使得长期能源协定的法律稳定性面临着常态化挑战。

### 3. 国内政治维度：玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多去向的不确定性
过渡时期的另一大关键变量，是反对派领袖玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多（María Corina Machado）的政治去向及政治版图的重组。尽管对外部署上，罗德里格斯正试图通过与西方企业签约展现政权平稳过渡的姿态，但掌握着民主合法性与分权关键钥匙的马查多，其回国或参与过渡政府的前景依然充满变数。

综合目前权威分析指标与外媒报道来看，尚无确凿证据证明马查多已正式加入政权，或与现政权建立了实质性的反对派联盟。换言之，填补后马杜罗时代权力真空所需的国民合法性机制目前仍然缺位。过渡政府究竟是将能源协定作为垫脚石以巩固独家权力，还是会迈向真正的权力共享，仍是一个有待检验的核心未决课题。

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## 前瞻：资源实用主义与脆弱政权过渡的试金石

委内瑞拉能源产业的重建，呈现出国际社会的实用主义算计与内部体制结构性脆弱并存的危险共生局面。

短期来看，得益于道达尔能源重启投资以及美国第52C号通用许可证的生效，委内瑞拉的原油钻探与炼化基础设施有望呈现渐进式复苏。只要国际油价维持在每桶100美元左右的高位震荡，委内瑞拉原油就将成为缓解全球原油市场供需失衡的有效缓冲垫。以NABEP股权结构为基础的美国25年长期介入政策，亦有望成为带动西方资本后续投资的催化剂。

然而，中长期前景却难以盲目乐观。围绕白宫石油交易负责人的跨国调查，随时可能演变成投资者诉讼以及美国国会的政治反弹。随着亚历克斯·萨博的司法配合进程以及西莉亚·弗洛雷斯相关诉讼的推进，过渡政权内部的权力暗斗极有可能进一步加剧。

最关键的是，在缺乏与包括玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多在内的传统主流反对派达成政治妥协或实质性分权的情况下，所签署的能源协议天生背负着“合法性不足”的根本隐患。若过渡政府无法透明地化解内外司法风险、将包容性治理付诸制度化实践，那么650亿桶储量与25年长期协定的宏伟蓝图最终恐沦为空中楼阁。委内瑞拉究竟能否重塑作为资源大国的公信力，抑或再次倒退回腐败与内耗的泥潭，完全取决于过渡政府未来能否彻底摆脱司法风险的掣肘，并实现真正的民主政治整合。

## Claims

- 베네수엘라의 로드리게스는 프랑스 석유 기업 토탈에너지스(TotalEnergies)와 공식 협정을 체결했다. (Supported)
- 미국은 베네수엘라와 25년 에너지 협정을 발표하여 650억 배럴 이상의 입증된 원유 매장량에 대한 과반 통제권 및 NABEP 35% 지분 확보를 추진했다. (Supported)
- 사우디아라비아 석유 인프라 피격 및 지정학적 긴장으로 중동발 유가 불안이 고조된 가운데 베네수엘라 원유 운영에 대한 미국 일반 면허 52C(GL 52C) 관련 조치가 보도되었다. (Supported)
- 백악관이 베네수엘라 석유 거래를 이끌도록 지정한 인물이 2개국에서 수사를 받고 있다는 의혹이 제기되었다. (reported)

## Forecasts

- 65% — 토탈에너지스의 베네수엘라 원유 생산 설비 복구 및 첫 선적 (6개월 이내). Signal: 로드리게스와의 협정 체결 이후 프랑스 및 유럽 정유사 대상 초기 유류 인도 일정 공시
- 55% — 미국 내 25년 에너지 협약에 대한 사법 조사 및 의회 청문회 착수 (3개월 이내). Signal: 협정 총괄 지명자에 대한 다국적 수사 보도 확산에 따른 미 의회 및 감독 기구의 공식 조사 개시

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- [TradingView — Track All Markets](https://www.tradingview.com/) — tradingview.com, 2026-09-20
- [FDD's Long War Journal - A Project of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies](https://www.longwarjournal.org/) — longwarjournal.org, 2026-09-20
- [Eurasia Business News – News that matter – L'actualité qui compte](https://eurasiabusinessnews.com/) — eurasiabusinessnews.com, 2026-09-20
- [Orinoco Tribune – From Venezuela and made by Venezuelan Chavistas](https://orinocotribune.com/) — orinocotribune.com, 2026-09-20
- [Blogs overview | Hub](https://legalblogs.wolterskluwer.com/) — legalblogs.wolterskluwer.com, 2026-09-20
- [صفحه اصلی | Iran International](https://www.iranintl.com/) — iranintl.com, 2026-09-20
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- [Sahi - Options trading & Stock investing | SEBI-Registered](https://www.sahi.com/) — sahi.com, 2026-09-20
- [Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP](https://www.hunton.com/) — hunton.com, 2026-09-20
- [The Conversation: In-depth analysis, research, news and ideas from leading academics and researchers.](https://theconversation.com/global) — theconversation.com, 2026-09-20
- [Brazil Energy Insight – Brought to you by Quest Offshore & Southern Cone Consultants](https://brazilenergyinsight.com/) — brazilenergyinsight.com, 2026-09-20
- [Financial Review - Business, Finance and Investment News | afr.com](https://www.afr.com/) — afr.com, 2026-09-20
- [Market Research Future - Industry Analysis Report, Business Consulting and Research](https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/) — marketresearchfuture.com, 2026-09-20
- [Global Witness](https://globalwitness.org/en/) — globalwitness.org, 2026-09-20
- [Latin America Reports](https://www.latinamericareports.com/) — latinamericareports.com, 2026-09-20
- [San Antonio News, Texas News, Sports, Weather from KSAT.com, Expect More](https://www.ksat.com/) — ksat.com, 2026-09-20
- [RFI - Actualités, info, news en direct - Radio France Internationale](https://www.rfi.fr/fr/) — rfi.fr, 2026-09-20
- [ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos](https://abcnews.com/) — abcnews.com, 2026-09-20
- [Fox News - Breaking News Updates | Latest News Headlines | Photos & News Videos](https://www.foxnews.com/) — foxnews.com, 2026-09-20
- [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/) — taipeitimes.com, 2026-09-20
- [Legis1 | Congressional Intelligence, Lobbying Data & Witness Database](https://legis1.com/) — legis1.com, 2026-09-20
- [NBC News - Breaking Headlines and Video Reports on World, U.S. and Local Angles | NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/) — nbcnews.com, 2026-09-20
- [Conservation and environmental science news - Mongabay](https://news.mongabay.com/) — news.mongabay.com, 2026-09-20
- [Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA | CGEP](https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/) — energypolicy.columbia.edu, 2026-09-20
- [International Consortium of Investigative Journalists - ICIJ](https://www.icij.org/) — icij.org, 2026-09-20
- [i24NEWS - Breaking news from the Middle East, Israel and around the world](https://www.i24news.tv/en) — i24news.tv, 2026-09-20
- [Editorials on Voice of America](https://editorials.voa.gov/) — editorials.voa.gov, 2026-09-20
- [Homepage - Cyprus Shipping News](https://cyprusshippingnews.com/) — cyprusshippingnews.com, 2026-09-20
- [Maritime News, Maritime Magazine](https://www.marinelink.com/) — marinelink.com, 2026-09-20
- [Latest News, Today's Paper and Daily ePaper – The Nation](https://www.nation.com.pk/) — nation.com.pk, 2026-09-20
- [Christian Science Monitor - CSMonitor.com](https://www.csmonitor.com/) — csmonitor.com, 2026-09-20
- [Straight Arrow - Unbiased News. Fear No Fact.](https://san.com/) — san.com, 2026-09-20
- [TotalEnergies - integrated multi-energy company | TotalEnergies.com](https://totalenergies.com/) — totalenergies.com, 2026-09-20
- [India News,Latest News,Today's News Headlines,World,Live Updates,Politics,Business,Sports,Entertainment: The New Indian Express](https://www.newindianexpress.com/) — newindianexpress.com, 2026-09-20
- [Shale24](https://www.shale24.com/) — shale24.com, 2026-09-20
- [The Harvard Crimson](https://www.thecrimson.com/) — thecrimson.com, 2026-09-20
- [NewsCord: Compare News Sources, Expose Media Bias](https://newscord.org/) — newscord.org, 2026-09-20
- [HOME - CIVICUS LENS](https://lens.civicus.org/) — lens.civicus.org, 2026-09-20
- [WLRN Homepage | WLRN](https://www.wlrn.org/) — wlrn.org, 2026-09-20
- [The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune – Geopolitical Trends](https://www.jstribune.com/) — jstribune.com, 2026-09-20
- [Demócrata | Medio político de referencia para los que deciden](https://www.democrata.es/) — democrata.es, 2026-09-20
- [PBS: Public Broadcasting Service](https://www.pbs.org/) — pbs.org, 2026-09-20
- [Latest news and current events updates | Yahoo News Singapore](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/) — sg.news.yahoo.com, 2026-09-20
- [Trump says U.S. will run Venezuela after U.S. captures Maduro - reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/) — reuters.com, 2026-09-20
- [Why Trump Refused to Back Venezuela’s Machado: Fears of Chaos, and Fraying Ties - The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) — The New York Times, 2026-09-20
- [Europe’s oil majors reap up to $4.75bn from trading on Iran war volatility - Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/) — Financial Times, 2026-09-20
- [U.S. Plays Down Quick Return to Democracy in Venezuela - WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/) — WSJ, 2026-09-20
- [[속보] 합참 “북한, 동해상으로 미상 발사체 추가 발사”](https://www.chosun.com/politics/diplomacy-defense/2026/09/20/DHTZCJIECRDHHDIBXRIN2AJKR4/) — chosun.com, 2026-09-20
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- [AI가 스스로 획기적 발견하면 노벨상도 받을까…수상자 3인의 답은 갈렸다](https://www.chosun.com/economy/tech_it/2026/09/20/PSPTZZFV65A5ZPIR2S5ZHI3NIQ/) — chosun.com, 2026-09-20
- [매진 고맙다! 그런데 롯추가루 맛이 어때? → 부산 연이틀 매진시킨 삼성 팬들, 대충격 2연패에 절망 [부산 현장]](https://www.chosun.com/sports/baseball/2026/09/20/GIZDAZJXMFSGCZBTGU2DANJTGI/) — chosun.com, 2026-09-20
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- [[포토] 김정운, 1점 차 승리 지켰다](https://www.chosun.com/sports/sports_photo/2026/09/20/MRRGMZLFGE2GEM3GGEYDKZRSMQ/) — chosun.com, 2026-09-20
- [Ukraine fires over 1,000 drones at Russia, including hundreds launched at Moscow](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/20/nx-s1-5975372/ukraine-fires-drones-at-russia-moscow) — npr.org, 2026-09-20
- [Thousands of planned launches, terms of deal, worry some near Louisiana SpaceX site](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/20/nx-s1-5974180/spacex-musk-landry-louisiana-ndas) — npr.org, 2026-09-20
- [NPR's College Podcast Challenge is back for 2026](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/20/nx-s1-5966588/nprs-college-podcast-challenge-is-back-for-2026) — npr.org, 2026-09-20
- [How the NPR College Podcast Challenge changed lives](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/20/nx-s1-5945292/college-podcast-challenge-five-years) — npr.org, 2026-09-20
- [Saudi Arabia says Houthis tried to attack its capital](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/19/nx-s1-5974980/saudi-arabia-houthis-attempted-attack-capital) — npr.org, 2026-09-20
- [Ed Sheeran says situation in Gaza is 'catastrophic and unjustifiable' as he opens solo concert](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/19/nx-s1-5974977/ed-sheeran-gaza-catastrophic-unjustifiable-opens-solo-concert) — npr.org, 2026-09-20
- [The new lines of southern Lebanon](https://www.npr.org/sections/the-picture-show/2026/09/19/g-s1-139752/the-new-lines-of-southern-lebanon) — npr.org, 2026-09-20
- [CNN, MS NOW, Politico reporters denied access to White House following Trump ban](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/19/nx-s1-5974854/trump-cnn-msnow-politico-ban) — npr.org, 2026-09-20
- [The US says Venezuela is changing. But one month since Maduro’s capture, its people aren’t so sure - CNN](https://www.cnn.com/) — CNN, 2026-09-20
- [TotalEnergies signs deal paving way for return to Venezuela By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa](https://za.investing.com/) — Investing.com South Africa, 2026-09-20
- [Saipem ‘ready’ to return to Venezuela, says CEO - Upstream Online](https://www.upstreamonline.com/) — Upstream Online, 2026-09-20
- [Making Libya investable again - Middle East Institute](https://mei.edu/) — Middle East Institute, 2026-09-20
- ["마두로 나가면 협조"…베네수 임시 대통령, 미국과 사전 밀약 정황 - v.daum.net](https://v.daum.net/) — v.daum.net, 2026-09-20
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- [TotalEnergies, 베네수엘라 복귀 길 열리는 협약 체결 - Investing.com 한국어](https://kr.investing.com/) — Investing.com 한국어, 2026-09-20
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- [What next for the humanitarian crisis and response in Venezuela? - The New Humanitarian](https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/) — The New Humanitarian, 2026-09-20
- [Acting Venezuelan president Delcy Rodriguez struck a newly conciliatory tone toward the United States and President Donald Trump late on Sunday, writing in a social media post: "We invite the US government to collaborate with us on an agenda of cooperati - facebook.com](https://www.facebook.com/) — facebook.com, 2026-09-20
- [Venezuela’s Rodríguez Lobbies Foreign Investors, Touts Pro-Business Reforms - Venezuelanalysis](https://venezuelanalysis.com/) — Venezuelanalysis, 2026-09-20
- [China in the U.S.-Venezuela Dispute: Beijing Has Complicated Washington’s Policy Towards Caracas - The SAIS Review of International Affairs](https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/) — The SAIS Review of International Affairs, 2026-09-20
- [How Trump took control of Venezuela’s democratic transition - Politico](https://www.politico.com/) — Politico, 2026-09-20
- [Trump’s betrayal of Maria Corina Machado won’t end well - The Hill](https://thehill.com/) — The Hill, 2026-09-20
- [In message from US jail, Maduro weighs in on Venezuela transition talks - South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/) — South China Morning Post, 2026-09-20
- [A month after Maduro's fall, Venezuela is under the gun to reform - NPR](https://www.npr.org/) — NPR, 2026-09-20
- [The United States, Venezuela Sign Strategic Oil Deal - Mexico Business News](https://mexicobusiness.news/) — Mexico Business News, 2026-09-20
- [Why TotalEnergies' CEO is Wary of Trump’s Venezuela Plans - Business Chief](https://businesschief.com/) — Business Chief, 2026-09-20
- [Chevron Records Highest Quarterly Profit in Six Years, Beating Analyst Estimates - EnergyNow.com](https://energynow.com/) — EnergyNow.com, 2026-09-20
- [Global energy giant joins Chevron in major Venezuela oil push - thestreet.com](https://www.thestreet.com/) — thestreet.com, 2026-09-20
- [Venezuela quake relief tests leader - The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette](https://www.arkansasonline.com/) — The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, 2026-09-20
- [Trump asks court to shield Venezuela leader Delcy Rodríguez from U.S. lawsuit - Miami Herald](https://www.miamiherald.com/) — Miami Herald, 2026-09-20
- [Venezuela’s interim leader angrily defends earthquake response - The Boston Globe](https://www.bostonglobe.com/) — The Boston Globe, 2026-09-20
- [Venezuela grants U.S.-backed oil firm NABEP 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields, White House says - CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/) — CNBC, 2026-09-20
- [The Panama Manifesto: Venezuela's opposition charts a new course - upi.com](https://www.upi.com/) — upi.com, 2026-09-20
- [Venezuelan opposition leader meets with Pope Leo before Trump visit - The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/) — The Washington Post, 2026-09-20