# 泰柬UNCLOS新加坡调解委启动及边境紧张监测

> 泰国与柬埔寨虽启动《联合国海洋法公约》调解程序以化解海界争端，但深层的历史积怨与陆地边境紧张依然存在。

Published: 2026-09-20T10:11:09.756Z
Updated: 2026-09-20T10:11:09.756Z
URL: /zh/article/thailand-cambodia-border-2026

# 泰柬边界争端与外交考验：启动《联合国海洋法公约》调解程序与边境紧张局势的真相

长期以来被视作东南亚安全格局中最敏感导火索之一的泰柬领土争端，如今再次迎来关键转折点。几十年来，两国围绕未定界陆地边界线、古寺遗址以及泰国湾海域划界，一直进行着激烈的军事与外交对抗。

在这种长期积聚的紧张局势下，近期通过新加坡谈判桌启动的基于《联合国海洋法公约》（UNCLOS）的调解程序，以及边境地带流传的军事风闻，吸引了国际社会的高度关注。在陆地与海洋、历史创伤与国际法仲裁相互交织的复杂背景下，有必要深入梳理当前局势的客观脉络。

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## 背景

解决泰柬边界争端的官方外交突破口，开始在基于国际法的多边主义框架内显现。柬埔寨政府派出由布拉索昆（Prak Sokhonn）率领的高级别代表团前往新加坡，出席了于2026年9月14日至16日举行的为期三天的《联合国海洋法公约》（UNCLOS）附件五（Annex V）联合国调解委员会首次正式会议。此次会议标志着两国迈出了关键的第一步，旨在通过和平、制度化的国际法框架，而非物理对抗，来解决长期僵持不下的海洋划界及相关争端。

然而，在外交对话窗口开启的背后，两国深层的历史积怨依然演变为激烈的舌战。特别是针对曼谷（泰国）方面提出的历史归属主张，柬埔寨大臣涅帕达（Neth Pheaktra）基于客观调查数据有力维护了本国正当性。他直接引用了联合国教科文组织-国际古迹遗址理事会（UNESCO-ICOMOS）联合报告及柬埔寨地雷行动中心（CMAC）的官方统计数据。

他明确列举了以往边境冲突期间柏威夏寺（Preah Vihear）一带留下的受损记录——“562处受损区域”以及现场遗留的“501个爆炸弹坑”，以此驳斥泰方主张的不当性。这表明，尽管海界谈判已全面铺开，但源于陆地古寺遗址的历史冲突创伤，仍在两国外交底层逻辑中根深蒂固。

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## 核心焦点

当前围绕泰柬关系的局势主要集中在两大核心焦点：一是海洋领域的国际法调解程序能否稳固确立，二是陆地边界的军事紧张疑云及其伴随的信息真空问题。

在海洋领域启动的UNCLOS附件五调解委员会，与具有强制管辖权的司法法院不同，它是一项旨在促成争议当事方实现和解与务实妥协的制度化程序。柬埔寨派遣代表团参与正式会议，体现其希望通过明确划分海洋边界，消除泰国湾内油气田等资源开发及海上安全不确定性的务实意愿。

与之相对的是，陆地接壤地区却交织着不稳定迹象与未经证实的传闻，加剧了紧张氛围。近期有消息称出现关于“针对9号界碑（Border Marker 9）附近战壕挖掘工程的官方抗议”以及“450高地（Hill 450）一带面临军事冲突隐患”等敏感传言。在界碑附近修筑阵地或战略高地（450高地）军事化的动向，是极易引爆局部冲突的危险火种。

然而，对相关传闻进行客观核查后会发现明显的信息空白。在目前获取的官方通讯摘要或外交、军事原始报道中，并无在当地发生实质性武装冲突、或通过外交渠道正式收发官方抗议照会的具体记录。换言之，关于9号界碑战壕工程及450高地军事对峙的迹象，基本属于未经官方交叉核实的未确认信息。东盟（ASEAN）外交渠道与地区安全专家虽密切关注边境动态，但也在警惕未经证实传言的肆意扩散，将核实客观军事部署事实置于首要位置。

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## 多维度分析

泰柬之间同时出现的“海上谈判桌”与“陆地军事紧张传闻”这一双重格局，需要从外交、历史、安全等多重视角进行精准剖析。

首先，在外交与制度层面，两国参与UNCLOS调解委员会印证了其和平管控冲突的战略抉择。尽管围绕界碑和战略高地存在局部紧张，两国仍如期出席新加坡会议，这一点意义重大。这说明领导层选择了务实主义算度，倾向于在制度化谈判框架内谋求国家利益最大化，而非陷入消耗性的武力对抗。通过诉诸国际机构的调解程序，两国意在赢得国际社会的信任，并将外部风险降至最低。

其次，在历史与国内政治层面，围绕柏威夏寺的归属之争是两国皆难以退让的主权象征。涅帕达大臣将UNESCO-ICOMOS报告和CMAC伤损统计（562处受损、501个弹坑）推至前台，旨在通过证实历史冲突造成的实质损失来抢占外交道义制高点。每当泰柬民族主义情绪升温时，柏威夏寺总会沦为凝聚国内舆论的工具。因此，即便在新加坡讨论海界划界，陆地遗址受损引发的言论交锋依然未息，这揭示出两国政府在顾及国内政治支持基本盘的情况下，不得不维持强硬姿态。

第三，在安全与信息管理层面，围绕9号界碑与450高地的军事风闻是典型的“安全困境”与“信息不对称”共同作用的产物。在边境地带，即便是微小的防御性举措或土木施工，也很容易被对方过度解读为挖掘战壕或夺取高地的图谋。未经交叉验证的冲突传言极易引发边境居民恐慌，并诱发一线指挥官误判。因此，国际社会当前正致力于遏制基于未经证实信息的过度反应，努力维持透明的外交沟通渠道以查证事实。

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## 前景展望

未来泰柬边境局势的走向，将取决于在新加坡迈出第一步的UNCLOS海洋调解委员会的推进速度，以及能否对未定界陆地边界实施稳定管控。

短期来看，双方预计将通过UNCLOS附件五调解委员会的后续会谈，正式启动关于划定海界及共同开发泰国湾的事务性技术磋商。鉴于海洋资源管辖权问题必然涉及复杂的法理与地缘妥协，比起短期内达成突破，更可能依照长期路线图逐步推进。只要两国仍留在正式对话轨道上，海上爆发物理冲突的概率在短期内将保持在较低水平。

然而，陆地边界依然是突发的危险变量。正如涅帕达大臣所提及的柏威夏寺旧创，历史冲突的记忆随时可能化为一点就着的易燃物。特别是若有关9号界碑附近的施工传闻或450高地的对峙疑云与实际军事调动相叠加，意外摩擦升级的风险始终存在。

归根结底，两国关系的未来取决于海上的“制度化调解”与陆地的“透明化危机管控”能否达成有效协调。针对未经证实的军事动向，当务之急是通过可靠的交叉核实迅速填补信息真空，并依托外交渠道先发进行官方澄清。两国能否摆脱武力示威与捕风捉影的泥潭，将新加坡UNCLOS调解的良好势头拓展至陆地边界的和平稳定，正成为各方密切注视的焦点。

## Claims

- 프락 소콘이 이끄는 캄보디아 대표단은 2026년 9월 14일부터 16일까지 싱가포르에서 태국과의 해양 분쟁과 관련해 UNCLOS 부속서 V에 의거해 설치된 유엔 조정위원회의 첫 회의에 참석했다. (reported)
- 캄보디아 네트 페악트라 장관은 태국 측의 비난에 대응하여 2025년 기준 쁘레아 비히어 사원의 562개 피해 구역과 501개의 분화구를 기록한 유네스코-ICOMOS 보고서 및 CMAC 자료를 인용했다. (reported)
- Nikkei Asia 등 주요 지역 매체는 태국과 캄보디아를 포함한 동남아시아 지역의 안보 및 지정학적 이슈를 정규 취재 범주로 모니터링하고 있다. (Supported)

## Forecasts

- 75% — 태국-캄보디아 UNCLOS 부속서 V 조정위 2차 실무 협의 연내 개최 (2026년 4분기). Signal: 싱가포르 1차 회의 종료에 따른 양국 실무 절차 합의 및 일정 공표
- 60% — 접경지 지상 국경 표지 및 참호 설치 관련 외교 경로 항의 문서 접수 (1개월 이내). Signal: 태국 외교부(MFA) 또는 캄보디아 외교부의 국경 표지 참호 굴착 관련 외교각서(diplomatic note) 교환 보도

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