# 选举赋予了什么正当性：2026年俄罗斯与瑞典抛出的民主之问

> 文章对比2026年俄罗斯杜马选举与瑞典大选，揭示了选举既可能沦为威权统治的合法化工具，也面临着多元代议制下政治妥协的严峻考验。

Published: 2026-09-19T07:23:47.667Z
Updated: 2026-09-19T07:23:47.667Z
URL: /zh/article/election-democracy-2026

# 囚于票箱的民主：选举威权主义的工具化与代议制的试金石

被称为“民主之花”的“选举”，是否必然能为民主提供保障？2026年秋，在欧亚大陆东端与北欧上演的政治图景，为这一历史悠久的追问给出了截然相反的两种答案。一方面，选举被用作威权政权追认其统治与对外强硬路线的完美“不在场证明”；另一方面，在多元分化的民意中，选举则充当了旨在防止国家治理陷入瘫痪、历经艰难的“宪制妥协”试金石。

在形式程序层面的投票与实质规范层面的法治主义激烈碰撞的今天，本文旨在探讨2026年俄罗斯国家杜马（下议院）选举与瑞典大选政局所折射出的民主危机与深刻启示。

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## 背景：2026年秋，欧亚大陆分道扬镳的两场选举

2026年9月18日至20日，为期三天的俄罗斯国家杜马选举清晰地展现了现代威权政权如何规训并挪用制度化选举。本届选举在完全排除了作为国际选举监督象征性机构的欧洲安全与合作组织（OSCE）观察团的情况下举行。

克里姆林宫通过严密管控投票站内外的各类变量，不仅重新确认了其在议会内的立法主导权，还树立起了已就长期化的对外战事与维系战时动员体制获得公众首肯的政治法统。不仅如此，选举前后俄罗斯当局在与波兰及波罗的海三国接壤的边境地带开设投票站，并肆无忌惮地采取对外强硬措施，例如扣押雀巢（Nestlé）和欧尚（Auchan）等欧洲全球跨国企业在俄资产，并将其转入临时管理体制。

反观同处这一时期的北欧典型民主福利国家瑞典，其大选格局则呈现出完全相反的轨迹。瑞典大选落幕后，中左翼社会民主工党（社民党）党魁玛格达莱娜·安德松（Magdalena Andersson）在多元且分化的政党格局中，面临着必须组建联合政府的高难度政治挑战。在右翼及极右阵营势头强劲、政策针锋相对的背景下，任何单一政党都无法取得压倒性胜利；为了确立执政合法性，党派间的政治博弈与宪法层面的妥协共识成为了不可回避的课题。

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## 核心焦点：统治的合法化借口与组阁的政治难题

贯穿这两场选举格局的核心焦点，是“选举结果究竟赋予了统治者什么”这一关乎权力本质的根本问题。

俄罗斯的国家杜马选举，是政治学中所探讨的典型**“选举主义”（Electoralism）**的极端体现。在实质性竞争格局与公平政治参与被预先剥夺的条件下，投票这一流于外表的形式主义过场，沦为了事后为掌权者既有统治力赋予合法性的工具。

面对美国林赛·格雷厄姆涉俄制裁法案生效以及向乌克兰援助防空武器等西方多方位的围堵施压，克里姆林宫将选举重新包装为捍卫体制与凝聚民心的象征性仪式。换言之，选举不再是修正体制错误的渠道，而是沦为了一种国家级的“免罪符”，用来为战时体制的维续以及没收西方企业资产等超法律的强硬举措进行正名。

相反，瑞典大选的案例则表明，在实质分权与法治（Rule of Law）运转良好的代议制民主中，选举绝不可能成为一张“空白委任状”。玛格达莱娜·安德松党魁及社民党面临的组阁困境，反证了民主制度中的宪制约束：多数决原则绝不等于无条件认可对少数群体的支配权。

在未能获得议会过半席位的情况下，若要组建联合政府，政党之间激烈的政策协调、妥协让步以及对宪法程序的恪守都是不可或缺的。由此可见，在瑞典，选举并不是实现权力垄断的终点，而是一道要求凝聚分化民意、开启对话与妥协的制度性命令。

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## 多维透视：形式合法性与实质法治主义的碰撞

俄罗斯与瑞典展现的鲜明对比，揭示了现代政治哲学与宪法学中的核心议题——**“形式合法性”（Formal Legality）**与**“实质正当性”（Substantive Legitimacy）**之间的根本脱节。

首先，从立宪主义视角来看，通过选举被赋予的权力绝非漫无边际。即便满足了投票率与法定程序要件，权力亦不能脱离司法审查与制衡，更不得侵犯公民的基本权利。

瑞典的政治运转正是扎根于这种宪制共识与制度约束之上。胜选并不意味着可以任意行使权力；拒绝妥协的单边独断将立刻对政权自身的合法性构成致命威胁。

其次，威权体制的话语策略公然绕开了这一民主规范。俄罗斯的威权政权通过刻意渲染外部的军事与经济威胁，来谋求国内的政治凝聚。

它将美国的涉俄制裁法案与西方的军事援助定性为外生性安全危机，将抵御这一危机的投票参与本身升华为捍卫国家主权的“象征性仪式”。在这一话语体系下，排斥欧安组织等国际观察机构以及剥夺反对派候选人参选资格，都被粉饰为维护“国家主权神圣不可侵犯”；选举程序随之被偷换为架空分权制衡的工具。

归根结底，两套体制的差异源于审视“选举”这一制度维度的根本分歧：
* **选举威权体制：** 借由选举垄断立法权，将战时动员体制与对外侵略性裹上“大众认可”的外衣，以此操弄形式合法性。
* **立宪代议民主体制：** 将选举视作揭示并调和多元社会冲突的起点，且只有在分权制衡与法治主义的规范框架之内，才能获得实质正当性。

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## 展望：现代民主的危机与回归“选举”本质之路

2026年秋天的两场选举所留下的追问，是评估未来全球治理格局演变的关键试金石。

俄罗斯国家杜马选举的余波预示着威权政权的进一步孤立以及强硬路线的不断升级。鉴于其已通过官控选举为战时动员体制取得了合法性口实，针对雀巢、欧尚等西方跨国企业在俄资产的查封以及对边境地区的施压很可能愈演愈烈。

克里姆林宫借由夸耀“选举主义式团结”来对抗以美国林赛·格雷厄姆制裁法案为代表的西方制裁网络，这种统治范式在威权阵营内部带来了潜在风险：它可能会将“无监督、无竞争的投票”推崇为巩固政权的常态化手段。

另一方面，瑞典玛格达莱娜·安德松党魁面临的组阁谈判困局表明，即便是成熟的代议制民主，同样在经历严峻的制度压力测试。如果在与右翼及极右阵营的僵持对峙中无法组建稳定的联合政府，选民对错综复杂的协商决策机制所产生的政治疲劳感便可能急剧上升。

然而同样不可否认的是，这一充满阵痛的妥协过程，恰恰是防范权力垄断、捍卫多元主义的核心防波堤。

选举绝不能沦为单纯向票箱投掷选票的机械程序。当投票蜕变为为掌权者统治背书的形式过场时，这一民主的核心机制反而会异化为扼杀民主本身的最危险枷锁。

面对形式化选举主义的诱惑，我们该如何捍卫实质法治、分权制衡与尊重少数群体等宪制价值？欧亚大陆两端所呈现的2026年选举图景，正向当代政治学抛出最为沉重且迫切的时代课题。

## Claims

- 러시아는 2026년 9월 18일부터 20일까지 OSCE 참관인 없이 3일간 국가두마(하원) 선거를 실시했다. (Supported)
- 러시아는 선거 국면에서 폴란드 및 발트 3국 접경지대에 투표소를 개설했다. (Supported)
- 러시아 정부는 스위스 식품기업 네슬레(Nestlé)와 프랑스 기업들의 자산을 압류 및 통제 조치했다. (Supported)
- 스웨덴 선거 이후 중도좌파 사민당 지도자 마그달레나 안데르손은 연립정부 구성을 위한 과제에 직면했다. (verified)
- 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령은 러시아산 원유 및 에너지 거래 등을 겨냥한 포괄적 대러 제재 법안(그레이엄 법안)에 서명했다. (Supported)
- 미국과 덴마크는 그린란드 내 안보 통제 및 군사 기지 협정에 전격 합의했다. (Supported)

## Forecasts

- 65% — 러시아 두마 선거 직후 전시 총동원령 또는 대규모 추가 징집 선언 (2026년 4분기). Signal: 선거 승리를 통한 대내 정당성 확보 이후 크렘린궁의 공식 동원령 확대 선포 또는 병역법 개정안 통과
- 80% — 스웨덴 의회의 소수파 정부 또는 다자 연립내각 공식 출범 (2026년 10월 말). Signal: 마그달레나 안데르손 대표의 공식 정부 구성안 의회 표결 통과 및 정책 연대 협약 발표

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- [Christian democracy - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_democracy) — en.wikipedia.org, 2026-09-19
- [Deliberative democracy - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deliberative_democracy) — en.wikipedia.org, 2026-09-19
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- [Countercurrents | Educate | Organize | Agitate](https://countercurrents.org/) — countercurrents.org, 2026-09-19
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- [Yoon Suk Yeol - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoon_Suk_Yeol) — en.wikipedia.org, 2026-09-19
- [The Spokesman-Review | Local News, Business, Entertainment, Sports & Weather for Eastern Washington](https://www.spokesman.com/) — spokesman.com, 2026-09-19
- [The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World](https://www.jpost.com/) — jpost.com, 2026-09-19
- [The Kyiv Independent — News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe](https://kyivindependent.com/) — kyivindependent.com, 2026-09-19
- [Daily Sabah | Latest & Breaking News from Turkey | Istanbul](https://www.dailysabah.com/) — dailysabah.com, 2026-09-19
- [Ukraine News Today: War, Business & Culture — UNITED24 Media](https://united24media.com/) — united24media.com, 2026-09-19
- [POLITICO – European Politics, Policy, Government News](https://www.politico.eu/) — politico.eu, 2026-09-19
- [EU Today - Your Source for News from the EU and Beyond](https://eutoday.net/) — eutoday.net, 2026-09-19
- [CBS News | Breaking news, top stories & today's latest headlines](https://www.cbsnews.com/) — cbsnews.com, 2026-09-19
- [Le Monde.fr - Actualités et Infos en France et dans le monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/) — lemonde.fr, 2026-09-19
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- [Pan African Review - The Conscientious Perspective](https://panafricanreview.com/) — panafricanreview.com, 2026-09-19
- [Good Authority - Political Science Insights to Illuminate the News](https://goodauthority.org/) — goodauthority.org, 2026-09-19
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- [Equal opportunity - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_opportunity) — en.wikipedia.org, 2026-09-19
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- [Fundamental rights in India - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_rights_in_India) — en.wikipedia.org, 2026-09-19
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- [Swedish election ends in tight finale. Preliminary results give opposition a 3-seat majority - AP News](https://apnews.com/) — AP News, 2026-09-19
- [Sweden's centre-left bloc leads close election against right-wing government - Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/) — Reuters, 2026-09-19
- [Why Russia Holds Elections, and How the Kremlin Gets the Results It Wants - The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) — The New York Times, 2026-09-19
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- [[사진]클로즈유어아이즈 켄신-송승호 '핫하다 핫해'](https://www.chosun.com/entertainments/entertain_photo/2026/09/19/ME4WIYTCGEZTCMBTMQ2TANDEGI/) — chosun.com, 2026-09-19
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- [대표팀 뽑힌 박태준 '선발출전' 주승진 감독, "부천전 선발 계획에 없었어...모레노 감독이 분명 좋아할 선수" [현장 인터뷰]](https://www.chosun.com/sports/football/2026/09/19/GYYWCOJQHA3DAMDGGM4GKZTFHE/) — chosun.com, 2026-09-19
- [태국 정부 스포츠 인재 육성 프로젝트 ‘TDP’, 축구로 한국과 만났다](https://www.chosun.com/sports/football/2026/09/19/GRTDQYZSMY4DSYZZMU2TQY3FG4/) — chosun.com, 2026-09-19
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- [Russia holds parliamentary vote in areas it seized from Ukraine in the war](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/19/g-s1-144169/russia-holds-parliamentary-vote-in-areas-it-seized-from-ukraine) — npr.org, 2026-09-19
- [As Europe warms, Italy sees West Nile virus spread](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/19/g-s1-144162/as-europe-warms-italy-sees-west-nile-virus-spread) — npr.org, 2026-09-19
- [US and Denmark reach deal to build US military presence in Greenland](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/19/g-s1-144158/us-and-denmark-reach-deal) — npr.org, 2026-09-19
- [Alaska's salmon-feasting bears face off in biggest Fat Bear Week ever](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/18/nx-s1-5973938/fat-bear-week-2026-bracket) — npr.org, 2026-09-19
- [Trump says he is banning CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/18/g-s1-144112/trump-ban-cnn-msnow-politico-white-house-media) — npr.org, 2026-09-19
- [When Trump and Xi meet they will discuss AI. 'Track Two' talks are already buzzing](https://www.npr.org/2026/09/18/nx-s1-5971481/trump-xi-meeting-ai-track-two-talks) — npr.org, 2026-09-19
- [What expensive sulfur means for your dinner table](https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2026/09/18/nx-s1-5974103/what-expensive-sulfur-means-for-your-dinner-table) — npr.org, 2026-09-19
- [Sweden’s Kristersson vacates PM office following narrow election defeat - EUalive](https://eualive.net/) — EUalive, 2026-09-19
- [Russia holds parliamentary vote in areas it seized from Ukraine in the war - NPR](https://www.npr.org/) — NPR, 2026-09-19
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- [Armenia Before the Election - DGAP](https://dgap.org/) — DGAP, 2026-09-19
- [Russia End State: Putin’s Presidential Election; Russia’s Rorschach-Test? - marshallcenter.org](https://www.marshallcenter.org/) — marshallcenter.org, 2026-09-19
- [Myanmar’s election theatre of the democratic absurd - East Asia Forum](https://eastasiaforum.org/) — East Asia Forum, 2026-09-19
- [Experts call this normalisation – Democracy and society - IPS Journal](https://www.ips-journal.eu/) — IPS Journal, 2026-09-19
- [러시아, 오늘부터 사흘간 총선…‘우크라 사태’ 이후 처음 - KBS 뉴스](https://news.kbs.co.kr/) — KBS 뉴스, 2026-09-19
- [A war-fatigued and anxious Russia picks a new parliament - DW.com](https://www.dw.com/) — DW.com, 2026-09-19
- [Swedish government commits to coalition with fascist Sweden Democrats after upcoming parliamentary election - World Socialist Web Site](https://www.wsws.org/) — World Socialist Web Site, 2026-09-19
- [Authoritarian socialism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authoritarian_socialism) — Wikipedia, 2026-09-19
- [Under the Veil of Democracy: What Do People Mean When They Say They Support Democracy? - cambridge.org](https://www.cambridge.org/) — cambridge.org, 2026-09-19
- [‘Here I go again’: Sweden’s ABBA election too close to call - euractiv.com](https://www.euractiv.com/) — euractiv.com, 2026-09-19
- [Swedish election left the blocs split over Israel and antisemitism - Haaretz](https://www.haaretz.com/) — Haaretz, 2026-09-19
- [Minority Governments: Why Smaller Is Not Necessarily Worse - The Israel Democracy Institute](https://en.idi.org.il/) — The Israel Democracy Institute, 2026-09-19
- [[사진]트레플에스 '반가워요 부산'](https://www.chosun.com/entertainments/entertain_photo/2026/09/19/MEZTCY3DGI4DKYRZHE3DKNLCMQ/) — chosun.com, 2026-09-19
- ['모레노 대표팀 감독 관전'에 부천 이영민 감독, "국가대표 나오길 바라기만 해선 안 된다, 직접 키워야" 강조 [현장 인터뷰]](https://www.chosun.com/sports/football/2026/09/19/MQZWKZJQGEZWEZJZGM4TGNLCMI/) — chosun.com, 2026-09-19
- [무려 48점 폭격! '다시 우생순' 韓 여자 핸드볼, 홍콩에 32점 차 압승...8년 만의 'AG 정상 탈환' 첫 단추 끼웠다](https://www.chosun.com/sports/sports_general/2026/09/19/GIYWGMRYME3DAMJZMI3TMOJSGI/) — chosun.com, 2026-09-19
- [OPINION | Why coalition readiness is central to democratic governance - SABC News](https://www.sabcnews.com/) — SABC News, 2026-09-19