# 阿根廷经济观察：米莱强比索致信贷就业恶化，2027连任前“电锯”紧缩步入调整期

> 阿根廷米莱政府推行的“强势比索”政策虽短期抑制了通胀，却导致制造业受挫、信贷恶化及失业加剧，令实体经济深陷泥潭。

Published: 2026-09-20T09:51:18.893Z
Updated: 2026-09-20T09:51:18.893Z
URL: /zh/article/argentina-milei-recession-2026

# “强势比索”的悖论与停下的电锯：哈维尔·米莱阿根廷经济改革的明与暗

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## 背景：遏制恶性通胀的“强势比索”与激进改革的起点

阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱（Javier Milei）就任以来，其经济政策的首要任务始终是遏制彻底失控的高通胀。除了旨在果断斩断国家财政赤字的标志性“电锯（Chainsaw）改革”之外，米莱政府强力推进的核心举措之一便是“强势比索（Strong Peso）”方针。为打破货币持续贬值刺激通胀攀升的恶性循环，政府采取了直接干预的硬手腕，通过人为维持比索的高估值来稳定物价。

这一货币防御策略短期内看似取得了平抑通胀率的显著成效。然而，人为高估本币价值的政策必然伴随副作用。阿根廷本土经济界与分析人士普遍批评，米莱政府顽固坚持的“强势比索”政策，已成为扼杀阿根廷实体经济增长的关键枷锁。在平息通胀的光环背后，国内产业基础与整体民生经济正在承受沉重的下行压力。

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## 核心症结：比索高估的悖论与实体经济的双重困境

当前阿根廷经济面临的核心症结集中在三个层面：本土制造业丧失价格竞争力、贷款逾期率飙升阻碍银行信贷扩张，以及就业市场质量的急剧恶化。

第一，比索估值过高导致实体经济结构性放缓。比索坚挺导致极具价格优势的进口成品大量涌入，给阿根廷本土制造企业带来了致命打击。在高昂的成本负担与高估的汇率夹击下，本土企业的盈利能力急剧恶化，整个工业领域笼罩在经济衰退的阴影之下。随着实体经济下行趋势日益明显，生产一线和本土工厂的增长动能正迅速衰竭。

第二，贷款逾期率急剧攀升，成为金融体系的潜在导火索。随着家庭与企业的偿债能力逼近极限，各项贷款的逾期违约率正迅猛上升。值得注意的是米莱总统与国际货币基金组织（IMF）对此所持的态度。尽管政府和IMF淡化处理，声称当前的违约率尚不足以威胁整体宏观经济，但独立经济学家的诊断却截然相反。不良资产的累积恶化了银行业的资产质量，严重抑制了新增信贷能力，最终瘫痪了米莱政府所期望的“私营信贷主导型经济扩张模式”。资金无法流动的信贷紧缩正在从源头上切断对实体经济的投资。

第三，劳动力市场极度不稳定。在整体失业率攀升的同时，正规部门岗位持续枯竭，非正规就业（Informal labor）比例飙升至18年来的最高水平。失去稳定社会保障网的劳动者大批涌入体制外的非正规就业岗位。面对飙升的生活成本，不得不兼顾多份工作的“多职打工人（Polyworking）”激增，为维持生计不得不承受超长工时的“工作贫困层”也出现爆发式增长。抑制通胀的沉重代价，被全盘转嫁到了脆弱群体的恶劣劳动环境之中。

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## 多维剖析：临近2027年大选的“电锯暂歇”与流动性处方

随着实体经济频频亮起红灯，原本一味奉行紧缩路线的米莱政府，在宏观政策取向上出现了微妙而重大的转变。其中最显著的变化，莫过于与政治时间表挂钩的财政支出策略调整。

纵观米莱政府的新一期财政预算案，可以发现其暗含着务实的政治考量：在2027年10月新一届总统大选前的一年时间里，事实上将暂停（Pause）削减公共支出的“电锯改革”。执政初期，政府专注于通过果断削减开支来压缩财政赤字；但在大选临近之际，若继续固守严苛的紧缩政策，势必难以承受民生凋敝引发的政治反弹。这表明政府为了争取选民支持、谋求连任，选择暂时放缓作为政权标志性招牌的紧缩步伐，进入“调息期”。

| 类别 | 主要政策与现象 | 经济及政治外溢效应 |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **货币与外汇** | 坚持“强势比索”（Strong Peso）基调 | 抑制物价的效果 vs 本土制造业盈利恶化，丧失相对进口产品的竞争力 |
| **金融市场** | 私营部门贷款逾期率骤升 | 银行信贷创造功能瘫痪，破坏私营主导的信贷扩张动能（政府及IMF与民间专家存在分歧） |
| **劳动力市场** | 非正规就业率创18年来新高 | 失业率攀升，弱势群体被迫从事“兼职打工（Polyworking）”及承受超长工时 |
| **政治与财政** | 应对2027年10月大选，“电锯紧缩”暂时停顿 | 防止民生恶化导致选票流失，新预算案中削减开支力度有所放缓 |
| **流动性举措** | 通过第二次“财政无罪（Fiscal Innocence）”法案 | 将“床垫下”及离岸隐匿的美元合法化，通过税收优惠与松绑监管注入流动性 |

与此同时，政府与国会联手推出的流动性支持举措，便是通过了第二次“财政无罪（Fiscal Innocence）”法案。阿根廷民间对银行体系存在根深蒂固的不信任，导致大量美元资金被存放在私人保险柜或海外账户中，规模极为庞大。为了将这些沉睡的民间美元资金引入正规金融体系，政府再次祭出激进的税收优惠与监管松绑工具。为了缓解流动性枯竭并扩充外汇储备，当局试图通过不追究过往资金来源的“金融特赦”手段来筑底托底经济。

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## 前瞻：实际购买力修复的预期与未解的结构性难题

米莱政府的宏观经济试验已行至关键十字路口。尽管承受着实体经济收缩和劳动力市场恶化的惨痛代价，政策当局仍对潜在的反弹因素抱有期待。

官方的核心逻辑在于：一旦物价企稳，居民实际购买力将逐步修复，从而带动内需市场的内生性反弹。如果通胀平抑的累积效用能够重新激活消费信心，受到压制的经济复苏火种便有望重燃。此外，通过第二次“财政无罪”法案回流正规体系的民间美元，也有望缓解外汇流动性短缺，并构筑防范外汇储备耗尽的安全垫。

外部资金与多边机构的支持也是潜在的利好因素之一。IMF工作组即将进行第三次评估访问，以审查阿根廷的财政平衡及整体经济规划。IMF极有可能对米莱政府恢复财政稳健的努力给予积极评价。评估结果有望为既有救助计划的展期以及国家对外信誉的改善提供新动能。

然而，长远前景难言全然乐观。出于对2027年大选的考量而暂缓紧缩，虽属务实的政治妥协，却潜藏着削弱结构性改革连贯性的风险。最关键的是，若无法化解阻碍银行信贷生成的居高不下的贷款逾期率，且对恶化至18年来最差水平的非正规劳动力市场结构性脆弱坐视不管，那么遏制通胀所带来的购买力修复成果，恐将仅局限于少数阶层。

归根结底，阿根廷经济的未来，取决于其能在多大程度上以美元流动性的注入与购买力的恢复，迅速对冲“强势比索”对实体工业造成的冲击；也取决于其在2027年大选的政治压力下，如何在放宽紧缩与恪守财政纪律这两个相互冲突的目标间取得平衡。若无法抚平放下“斩通胀电锯”后所遗留的产业空心化与就业恶化创伤，米莱政权的激进经济试验恐怕终究只能止步于“半成品”。

## Claims

- 밀레이 정부의 인플레이션 통제를 위한 강한 페소(strong peso) 정책이 경제 성장을 억제하고 있다는 분석이 제기되었다. (Supported)
- 밀레이 행정부의 예산안에는 2027년 10월 대선으로 향하는 1년 동안 그의 상징적인 '전기톱' 긴축 조치가 대부분 중단(pause)될 것이라는 인식이 반영되어 있다. (Supported)
- 아르헨티나의 높은 채무 연체율로 인해 밀레이 대통령이 모색하는 경제 확장의 핵심 동력인 신용 성장이 둔화되었다. (Supported)
- 밀레이 대통령과 IMF는 대출 연체가 경제에 위협이 되지 않는다고 밝혔으나 독립 전문가들은 이에 반대 의견을 제시했다. (Supported)
- 아르헨티나의 고용 불안정이 급증하면서 실업률이 상승하고 비공식 노동이 18년 만에 최고치를 기록했으며, 복수 취업(polyworking) 인구가 증가했다. (Supported)
- 아르헨티나 의회는 국민들이 숨겨둔 달러(stashed dollars)를 유치하기 위해 세제 혜택과 규제 완화를 제공하는 2차 '재정 무죄' 법안을 승인했다. (Supported)
- IMF 실무단이 아르헨티나 경제 프로그램 및 재정 균형을 평가하는 3차 검토를 위해 방문할 예정이다. (Supported)

## Forecasts

- 75% — 밀레이 정부의 2027년 대선 대비 '전기톱 긴축 완화' 기조 유지 (2027 Q3). Signal: 차기 연도 예산안에서 공공지출 삭감 강도 조절 및 민생·선거용 지출 방어 조항 유지
- 65% — 강한 페소 부작용에 따른 환율 운용 및 외환 규제 정책 조정 압력 (2026 Q4). Signal: IMF 3차 검토 보고서 내 페소 과대평가 우려 언급 및 현지 제조업계의 환율 정상화 요구

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